Today’s article in ET by Reshmi Khurana and Probal Dasgupta has given a clear insight on key political events that could affect global as well as India’s economy.
With his unconventional leadership style, Trump is redefining US relationship with rest of world, especially with Russia, China and West Asia.
Analysts say, China is all set to fill in any leadership gap that US could not, in global politics. For instance, China is expected to oppose Trump’s move to decertify Presidents Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran in 2015. With support of EU and Russia, this could strongly help represent China’s position as global power.
(image courtesy: flicker.com)
US and Russia has different positions in West Asia. US stand to declare Jerusalem as Israel capital has raised tensions. China has already announced it intent to play a role in resolving the dispute, signally itself as a global peace broker. With Russia supporting China here, this would bring both these two countries politically closer. Not sure yet on US sanctions on Russia, but this would also have impact on Russia’s undersea Nordstream pipeline between Germany and Russia. This in turn might strangle the ties between US and EU.
With US supporting Japan and India w.r.t trade in India Ocean region, where China is strategically to start dominate the region, the global relations among these key super power countries would define the economies significantly.
North Korea would be another key flashpoint in 2018. With countries 70th anniversary and South Korea hosting Winter Olympics any aggression on either side would have high impact globally.
Other key event happening is Brexit. While there are still couple of years to see its full affect, things like reduced immigration etc have started showing the impact. With reduced availability of technicians and skilled labour from other EU areas, the labour cost is increasing in UK.
In Summary, 2018 looks to be a crucial year in defining the global economies
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